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Sparta Praha cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Slovan Liberec.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sparta Praha beat Slovan Liberec 0-2 at Stadion U Nisy, Championship Group - 4, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Slovan Liberec 1.01 xG and Sparta Praha 0.89 xG, a combined 1.90. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Slovan Liberec fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Sparta Praha outscored their 0.89 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slovan Liberec attack 0.86 / defence 0.74 against Sparta Praha attack 0.99 / defence 0.85, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Slovan Liberec 36% | Draw 34% | Sparta Praha 30%, with Slovan Liberec to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Sparta Praha win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slovan Liberec 43%, Sparta Praha 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Slovan Liberec's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Sparta Praha's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Sparta Praha arrived the stronger side — 1.91 PPG against 1.40. That form edge translated into the three points. Slovan Liberec (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.38 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.88 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sparta Praha (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.03 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights