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Sparta Praha cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Slovan Liberec.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sparta Praha beat Slovan Liberec 0-2 at Stadion U Nisy, Regular Season - 5, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Slovan Liberec 1.41 xG and Sparta Praha 1.24 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Slovan Liberec fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slovan Liberec attack 1.13 / defence 0.88 against Sparta Praha attack 1.17 / defence 0.90, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Slovan Liberec 40% | Draw 27% | Sparta Praha 33%, with Slovan Liberec to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Sparta Praha win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slovan Liberec 50%, Sparta Praha 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Slovan Liberec's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Sparta Praha's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Slovan Liberec 1.44 PPG, Sparta Praha 1.78 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sparta Praha win broke the near-deadlock. Slovan Liberec (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.56 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.94 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sparta Praha (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.22 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights