🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Shock result as Slovan Liberec defy the odds to beat Sparta Praha 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Slovan Liberec beat Sparta Praha 1-0 at Stadion u Nisy, Regular Season - 26, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Slovan Liberec 1.32 xG and Sparta Praha 1.43 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Sparta Praha landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slovan Liberec attack 1.07 / defence 0.95 against Sparta Praha attack 1.34 / defence 0.88, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Slovan Liberec 33% | Draw 28% | Sparta Praha 38%, with Sparta Praha to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Slovan Liberec win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slovan Liberec 49%, Sparta Praha 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Slovan Liberec's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.

Sparta Praha's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Sparta Praha arrived the stronger side — 2.33 PPG against 1.23. Form was overturned, with Slovan Liberec winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Slovan Liberec (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.18 average — tighter than their form line. Sparta Praha (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.21 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights