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Prediction vindicated as Slovan Liberec edge out Slovácko 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Slovan Liberec beat Slovácko 2-1 at Stadion U Nisy, Regular Season - 28, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Slovan Liberec 1.43 xG and Slovácko 0.78 xG, a combined 2.21. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slovan Liberec attack 0.91 / defence 0.81 against Slovácko attack 0.86 / defence 1.11, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Slovan Liberec 51% | Draw 30% | Slovácko 19%, with Slovan Liberec to win its most likely call at 51%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slovan Liberec 41%, Slovácko 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Slovan Liberec's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.

Slovácko's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Slovan Liberec arrived the stronger side — 1.45 PPG against 1.02. The form guide was vindicated by the result.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights