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Prediction vindicated as Slavia Praha edge out Slovan Liberec 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Slavia Praha beat Slovan Liberec 1-2 at Stadion U Nisy, Championship Group - 1, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Slovan Liberec 0.98 xG and Slavia Praha 1.12 xG, a combined 2.10. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Slavia Praha outscored their 1.12 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slovan Liberec attack 0.85 / defence 0.72 against Slavia Praha attack 1.29 / defence 0.83, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Slovan Liberec 30% | Draw 32% | Slavia Praha 37%, with Slavia Praha to win its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slovan Liberec 44%, Slavia Praha 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Slovan Liberec's trading profile (62 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.

Slavia Praha's trading profile (62 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Slavia Praha arrived the stronger side — 2.48 PPG against 1.47. Form held, and they took the win. Slovan Liberec (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.83 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights