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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Slovan Liberec and Slavia Praha share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Stadion U Nisy, Regular Season - 9, as Slovan Liberec and Slavia Praha drew 1-1 in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Slovan Liberec 0.94 xG and Slavia Praha 1.27 xG, a combined 2.21. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slovan Liberec attack 0.96 / defence 0.89 against Slavia Praha attack 1.15 / defence 0.73, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Slovan Liberec 26% | Draw 31% | Slavia Praha 43%, with Slavia Praha to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slovan Liberec 45%, Slavia Praha 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Slovan Liberec's trading profile (40 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

Slavia Praha's trading profile (40 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 55% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Slavia Praha arrived the stronger side — 2.58 PPG against 1.40. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Slavia Praha (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.05 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights