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Prediction vindicated as Slovan Liberec edge out Sigma Olomouc 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Slovan Liberec beat Sigma Olomouc 1-0 at Stadion U Nisy, Regular Season - 17, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Slovan Liberec 1.50 xG and Sigma Olomouc 1.09 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Sigma Olomouc landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slovan Liberec attack 1.14 / defence 0.80 against Sigma Olomouc attack 1.06 / defence 0.96, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Slovan Liberec 45% | Draw 29% | Sigma Olomouc 26%, with Slovan Liberec to win its most likely call at 45%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slovan Liberec 46%, Sigma Olomouc 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Slovan Liberec's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.

Sigma Olomouc's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Slovan Liberec 1.48 PPG, Sigma Olomouc 1.35 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Slovan Liberec win broke the near-deadlock. Slovan Liberec (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.96 average — tighter than their form line. Sigma Olomouc (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights