Slovan Liberec 1-1 Plzen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Plzen at 37% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Slovan Liberec vs Plzen encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Czech Liga clash, Regular Season - 7 as Slovan Liberec welcome Plzen to Stadion u Nisy. Kick-off is set for Sunday 1 September 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Slovan Liberec have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: D L L W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Slovan Liberec have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Slovan Liberec's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 games at Stadion u Nisy this term (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Slovan Liberec are significantly better at Stadion u Nisy than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Plzen stand at 6W 3D 1L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Plzen have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Plzen's form when playing away from home: 5W 4D 1L across 10 road games this term (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Form points away from home here. Plzen's 2.10 PPG return is 1.20 points per game ahead of Slovan Liberec's 0.90 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Slovan Liberec have won 2, Plzen 2, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Mar 2024, ended 3–1 with Slovan Liberec winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Slovan Liberec in-play and half-time data (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
Plzen in-play and half-time data (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Slovan Liberec 55% versus Plzen 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Slovan Liberec 50% | Plzen 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Slovan Liberec 1.10 xG and Plzen 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Slovan Liberec attack 1.085 / defence 0.877 | Plzen attack 1.292 / defence 0.737. League average goals — home 1.381 / away 1.029. Plzen's defence strength of 0.737 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Plzen have an above-average attack strength of 1.292 — the away xG of 1.17 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 36 Slovan Liberec games / 35 Plzen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Slovan Liberec 34% | Draw 29% | Plzen 37%. Fair-value odds: Slovan Liberec 2.94 | Draw 3.45 | Plzen 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.27. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.27 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Plzen at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Plzen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.27 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. Form rates are neutral: Slovan Liberec 50% | Plzen 50%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Slovan Liberec vs Plzen | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Stadion u Nisy • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Sep 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Slovan Liberec 34% | Draw 29% | Plzen 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 46% | xG Slovan Liberec 1.10 / Plzen 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Slovan Liberec attack 1.085 / def 0.877 | Plzen attack 1.292 / def 0.737 | league avg home 1.381 / away 1.029 • Poisson stance: Plzen (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Slovan Liberec xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Plzen xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Slovan Liberec vs Plzen kick off?
Slovan Liberec vs Plzen kicked off at 19:00 on Sunday 1 September 2024 at Stadion u Nisy.
What was the final score in Slovan Liberec vs Plzen?
Slovan Liberec 1 - 1 Plzen.
Where is Slovan Liberec vs Plzen being played?
The match is being played at Stadion u Nisy.
What competition is Slovan Liberec vs Plzen part of?
Slovan Liberec vs Plzen is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Slovan Liberec vs Plzen?
Our statistical model gives Slovan Liberec a 34% chance of winning, Plzen a 37% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Plzen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Slovan Liberec vs Plzen?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Slovan Liberec and Plzen will score (BTTS).
Will Slovan Liberec vs Plzen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Slovan Liberec and Plzen?
Record (4 meetings): Slovan Liberec 2W | Draws 0 | Plzen 2W.
What form are Slovan Liberec and Plzen in?
Slovan Liberec (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-L-W-L. Plzen (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Slovan Liberec's attacking strength (1.08x league average) is weighed against Plzen's defensive record (0.74x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.10. The same calculation in reverse, Plzen's attack versus Slovan Liberec's defence, projects 1.17 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 36/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.1%), 0-1 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Plzen Win
34%
2.93
29%
3.50
37%
2.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.0%
Away win
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Slovan Liberec xG
Total xG
2.27
1.17
Plzen xG
2.93
34%
Home win
3.50
29%
Draw
2.68
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
31%
3.21
33%
3.02
Win to Nil
11%
9.39
12%
8.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.3 | 12.0 | 7.0 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 13.3 | 7.8 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 7.3 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.7 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Slovan Liberec vs Plzen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Slovan Liberec and Plzen expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Slovan Liberec and 1.17 for Plzen, a combined total of 2.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Slovan Liberec vs Plzen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Slovan Liberec's recent record stands at 12W 11D 15L from 38 games, a 1.24 PPG return, with D-L-L-W-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Slovan Liberec, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Plzen, meanwhile, have gone 25W 7D 6L across 38 games — 2.16 PPG, with W-W-D-W-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Plzen, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Plzen by 0.92 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Slovan Liberec heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Slovan Liberec have managed 10W 4D 5L from 19 games — 1.79 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.24 PPG overall — Slovan Liberec are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Plzen's away record stands at 11W 5D 3L across 19 trips, a 2.00 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Slovan Liberec are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Plzen are on 2.29 scored and 1.03 conceded.
Defensively: Plzen in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 38 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Slovan Liberec
Early Season
Plzen
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Slovan Liberec and Plzen in coming into this match?
Slovan Liberec have gone 12W 11D 15L in their last 38 games (1.24 PPG), while Plzen have gone 25W 7D 6L in their last 38 (2.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Slovan Liberec at home or Plzen away?
Plzen's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Slovan Liberec at home: 1.79 PPG; Plzen away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Slovan Liberec or Plzen been keeping clean sheets recently?
Slovan Liberec have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Plzen in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Slovan Liberec and Plzen runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 25 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Oct 2023, when Slovan Liberec won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Slovan Liberec's record when hosting Plzen specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Slovan Liberec
2
Draws
5
Plzen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Slovan Liberec and Plzen?
From 10 meetings on record, Slovan Liberec have won 3, Plzen have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Slovan Liberec and Plzen last play each other?
They last met on 25 July 2026, when Plzen 1-3 Slovan Liberec.
Who has won more matches between Slovan Liberec and Plzen?
Plzen have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Slovan Liberec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Plzen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Slovan Liberec 47%, Plzen 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Slovan Liberec) and 63% (Plzen). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Slovan Liberec keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Slovan Liberec home games / Plzen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Slovan Liberec play Plzen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 47% of Slovan Liberec's games and 63% of Plzen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Slovan Liberec vs Plzen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of Slovan Liberec's matches and 63% of Plzen's.
Do Slovan Liberec and Plzen tend to score early?
Slovan Liberec have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Plzen in 84% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Slovan Liberec and Plzen share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion u Nisy, Regular Season - 7, as Slovan Liberec and Plzen drew 1-1 in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Slovan Liberec 1.10 xG and Plzen 1.17 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slovan Liberec attack 1.08 / defence 0.88 against Plzen attack 1.29 / defence 0.74, drawn from 36/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Slovan Liberec 34% | Draw 29% | Plzen 37%, with Plzen to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slovan Liberec 50%, Plzen 66%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Slovan Liberec's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Plzen's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Plzen arrived the stronger side — 2.16 PPG against 1.24. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Slovan Liberec (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.84 scoring average — below par going forward. Plzen (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.