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Prediction vindicated as Slovan Liberec edge out Pardubice 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Slovan Liberec beat Pardubice 2-1 at Stadion U Nisy, Regular Season - 2, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Slovan Liberec 1.59 xG and Pardubice 1.15 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slovan Liberec attack 1.06 / defence 0.96 against Pardubice attack 0.88 / defence 1.19, drawn from 31/31 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Slovan Liberec 46% | Draw 27% | Pardubice 26%, with Slovan Liberec to win its most likely call at 46%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slovan Liberec 48%, Pardubice 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 39%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Slovan Liberec's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

Pardubice's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Slovan Liberec arrived the stronger side — 1.39 PPG against 0.76. Form held, and they took the win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights