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Slovan Liberec cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Mlada Boleslav.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Slovan Liberec beat Mlada Boleslav 3-1 at Stadion u Nisy, Regular Season - 22, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Slovan Liberec 1.23 xG and Mlada Boleslav 1.15 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Slovan Liberec beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slovan Liberec attack 0.95 / defence 0.92 against Mlada Boleslav attack 1.05 / defence 0.84, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Slovan Liberec 38% | Draw 28% | Mlada Boleslav 34%, with Slovan Liberec to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slovan Liberec 51%, Mlada Boleslav 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Slovan Liberec's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Mlada Boleslav's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Slovan Liberec 1.21 PPG, Mlada Boleslav 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Slovan Liberec win broke the near-deadlock. Slovan Liberec (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.73 average — above their attacking norm. Mlada Boleslav (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.58 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights