Slovan Liberec 2-1 Karviná – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Slovan Liberec at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Slovan Liberec vs Karviná fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Slovan Liberec and Karviná meet at Stadion u Nisy in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 29. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 17 April 2022 at 16:00 UTC.
Form
Slovan Liberec (all games): 2W 5D 3L across 10 Czech Liga fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W W L L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Slovan Liberec's home record at Stadion u Nisy: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Czech Liga appearances (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Slovan Liberec are significantly better at Stadion u Nisy than their overall form suggests.
Karviná have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: L L W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Karviná have gone 2W 0D 8L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.10 PPG for Slovan Liberec against 0.90 for Karviná. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Slovan Liberec, 0 for Karviná and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Nov 2021, ended 2–1 with Slovan Liberec winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Slovan Liberec half-time and goal-timing data (28 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
Karviná half-time and goal-timing data (28 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 93% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Slovan Liberec 43% versus Karviná 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Slovan Liberec 36% | Karviná 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Slovan Liberec 1.22 xG and Karviná 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Slovan Liberec attack 0.870 / defence 0.977 | Karviná attack 0.748 / defence 1.286. League average goals — home 1.089 / away 1.126. Karviná bring a strong defensive rating of 1.286 — this is suppressing Slovan Liberec's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 28 Slovan Liberec games / 28 Karviná games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Slovan Liberec 45% | Draw 30% | Karviná 25%. Fair-value odds: Slovan Liberec 2.22 | Draw 3.33 | Karviná 4.00. Slovan Liberec hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.04. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.04 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Slovan Liberec at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Slovan Liberec if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.04 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 33% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 40% on No. Form rates corroborate: Slovan Liberec 40% | Karviná 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Slovan Liberec vs Karviná | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Stadion u Nisy • Kick-off: Sunday 17 Apr 2022, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Slovan Liberec 45% | Draw 30% | Karviná 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 40% | xG Slovan Liberec 1.22 / Karviná 0.82 • Poisson strength factors: Slovan Liberec attack 0.870 / def 0.977 | Karviná attack 0.748 / def 1.286 | league avg home 1.089 / away 1.126 • Poisson stance: Slovan Liberec (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
Slovan Liberec xG
Expected Goals
0.82
Karviná xG
40%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Slovan Liberec vs Karviná kick off?
Slovan Liberec vs Karviná kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 17 April 2022 at Stadion u Nisy.
What was the final score in Slovan Liberec vs Karviná?
Slovan Liberec 2 - 1 Karviná.
Where is Slovan Liberec vs Karviná being played?
The match is being played at Stadion u Nisy.
What competition is Slovan Liberec vs Karviná part of?
Slovan Liberec vs Karviná is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Slovan Liberec vs Karviná?
Our statistical model gives Slovan Liberec a 45% chance of winning, Karviná a 25% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Slovan Liberec the favourite.
Will both teams score in Slovan Liberec vs Karviná?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Slovan Liberec and Karviná will score (BTTS).
Will Slovan Liberec vs Karviná have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Slovan Liberec and Karviná?
Record (1 meetings): Slovan Liberec 1W | Draws 0 | Karviná 0W.
What form are Slovan Liberec and Karviná in?
Slovan Liberec (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-L-L-D. Karviná (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Slovan Liberec's attack at 0.87x the league average against Karviná's defence at 1.29x — combine the two and it projects 1.22 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Karviná's attack (0.75x) against Slovan Liberec's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 0.82.
These ratings are built from 28/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.7%), 1-0 (14.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Slovan Liberec Win
45%
2.23
30%
3.28
25%
4.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.8%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.0%
Draw
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
Slovan Liberec xG
Total xG
2.04
0.82
Karviná xG
2.23
45%
Home win
3.28
30%
Draw
4.07
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.51
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
44%
2.28
30%
3.38
Win to Nil
20%
5.07
7%
13.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.0 | 10.7 | 4.4 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.8 | 13.0 | 5.4 | 1.5 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 9.6 | 7.9 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.9 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Slovan Liberec vs Karviná?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Slovan Liberec and Karviná expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Slovan Liberec and 0.82 for Karviná, a combined total of 2.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Slovan Liberec vs Karviná?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Slovan Liberec come into this having played 28 games, going 9W 7D 12L for 1.21 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-L-D.
On the other side, Karviná sit at 0.50 PPG from 28 outings (2W 8D 18L), a run that reads L-L-W-D-L across their last five.
Slovan Liberec carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.71 PPG clear of Karviná — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Slovan Liberec's home form reads 6W 2D 6L across 14 games on their own ground, a 1.43 PPG return.
Away from home, Karviná have taken 0.50 points per game from 14 outings (2W 1D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Slovan Liberec come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Slovan Liberec are averaging 0.96 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Karviná are on 0.93 scored and 1.71 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Karviná in 61%.
Last 28 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Slovan Liberec
Current Season
Karviná
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Slovan Liberec and Karviná in coming into this match?
Slovan Liberec have gone 9W 7D 12L in their last 28 games (1.21 PPG), while Karviná have gone 2W 8D 18L in their last 28 (0.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Slovan Liberec at home or Karviná away?
Slovan Liberec's home record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Slovan Liberec at home: 1.43 PPG; Karviná away: 0.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 12 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Slovan Liberec won 6-0 on 9 Nov 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Slovan Liberec have gone 3W 0D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Karviná — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Slovan Liberec
0
Draws
3
Karviná
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Slovan Liberec and Karviná?
From 8 meetings on record, Slovan Liberec have won 5, Karviná have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Slovan Liberec and Karviná last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2026, when Karviná 3-1 Slovan Liberec.
Who has won more matches between Slovan Liberec and Karviná?
Slovan Liberec have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Slovan Liberec see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Karviná are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 93% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 29% (Slovan Liberec) and 36% (Karviná) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 29% (Slovan Liberec) and 43% (Karviná).
On the defensive side: Slovan Liberec have failed to score in 50% of games; Karviná in 57%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Slovan Liberec home games / Karviná away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Slovan Liberec play Karviná?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 29% of Slovan Liberec's recent matches and 36% of Karviná's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Slovan Liberec vs Karviná usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of Slovan Liberec's recent games and 43% of Karviná's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Slovan Liberec and Karviná tend to score early?
Slovan Liberec have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Karviná in 93% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Slovan Liberec edge out Karviná 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Slovan Liberec beat Karviná 2-1 at Stadion u Nisy, Regular Season - 29, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Slovan Liberec 1.22 xG and Karviná 0.82 xG, a combined 2.04. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slovan Liberec attack 0.87 / defence 0.98 against Karviná attack 0.75 / defence 1.29, drawn from 28/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Slovan Liberec 45% | Draw 30% | Karviná 25%, with Slovan Liberec to win its most likely call at 45%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slovan Liberec 36%, Karviná 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Slovan Liberec's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.
Karviná's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Slovan Liberec arrived the stronger side — 1.21 PPG against 0.50. That form edge translated into the three points. Slovan Liberec (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.93 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.