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Dominant Slovan Liberec run riot with a 6-0 hammering of Karviná.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Slovan Liberec beat Karviná 6-0 at Stadion U Nisy, Regular Season - 15, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Slovan Liberec 1.32 xG and Karviná 1.42 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 6-0 for 6 actual goals. Slovan Liberec beat their projection by 4.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Karviná landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slovan Liberec attack 0.88 / defence 0.94 against Karviná attack 1.25 / defence 1.28, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Slovan Liberec 32% | Draw 31% | Karviná 37%, with Karviná to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Slovan Liberec win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slovan Liberec 44%, Karviná 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Slovan Liberec's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.

Karviná's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Slovan Liberec 1.41 PPG, Karviná 1.37 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Slovan Liberec win broke the near-deadlock. Slovan Liberec (home/away splits) scored 6 against a 1.30 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Karviná (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.48 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 6 against a 2.04 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights