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Shock result as Karviná defy the odds to beat Slovan Liberec 2-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Karviná beat Slovan Liberec 2-3 at Stadion u Nisy, Regular Season - 30, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Slovan Liberec 1.88 xG and Karviná 0.98 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Karviná outscored their 0.98 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slovan Liberec attack 1.06 / defence 0.79 against Karviná attack 1.03 / defence 1.32, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Slovan Liberec 58% | Draw 24% | Karviná 18%, with Slovan Liberec to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a Karviná win, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slovan Liberec 48%, Karviná 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Slovan Liberec's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.

Karviná's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Slovan Liberec 1.34 PPG, Karviná 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Karviná win broke the near-deadlock. Slovan Liberec (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.10 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Karviná (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.13 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights