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Poisson model favours Slovan Liberec (58%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Slovan Liberec face Hradec Králové.

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Analysis & Preview

A Czech Liga encounter, Regular Season - 24 sees Hradec Králové travel to Stadion U Nisy to take on Slovan Liberec. The game is scheduled for Saturday 28 February 2026, 14:00 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Slovan Liberec stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D W L W L. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Slovan Liberec, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Slovan Liberec's home record at Stadion U Nisy: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Czech Liga appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadion U Nisy. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Hradec Králové — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Czech Liga fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D L W L D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Hradec Králové, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in Czech Liga this season, Hradec Králové have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Slovan Liberec are in the better shape of the two on current Czech Liga data — 0.60 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 1.40). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.

H2H Record

The fixture history tells a clear story: Slovan Liberec have dominated this rivalry, winning 4 of 8 past contests while Hradec Králové have managed just 1 wins.

The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Sep 2025, ended 3–2 with Slovan Liberec winning.

The historical record gives Slovan Liberec a meaningful edge here — 4 wins from 8 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.

Trading Patterns

Slovan Liberec in-play and half-time data (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games).

Hradec Králové in-play and half-time data (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Slovan Liberec 44% versus Hradec Králové 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Slovan Liberec 44% | Hradec Králové 44%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Slovan Liberec 1.65 xG and Hradec Králové 0.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Slovan Liberec attack 1.113 / defence 0.724 | Hradec Králové attack 0.923 / defence 1.167. League average goals — home 1.273 / away 1.109. Slovan Liberec's defence rating of 0.724 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 53 Slovan Liberec games / 53 Hradec Králové games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Slovan Liberec 58% | Draw 26% | Hradec Králové 15%. Fair-value odds: Slovan Liberec 1.72 | Draw 3.85 | Hradec Králové 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Slovan Liberec (58%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Slovan Liberec are the pick at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 2.39 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. Form rates corroborate: Slovan Liberec 20% | Hradec Králové 60% BTTS from recent games.

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