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FK Jablonec cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Slovan Liberec.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FK Jablonec beat Slovan Liberec 0-2 at Stadion U Nisy, Regular Season - 13, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Slovan Liberec 0.96 xG and FK Jablonec 0.99 xG, a combined 1.94. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Slovan Liberec fell 1.0 short of their projected output. FK Jablonec outscored their 0.99 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slovan Liberec attack 0.94 / defence 0.84 against FK Jablonec attack 1.01 / defence 0.86, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Slovan Liberec 30% | Draw 39% | FK Jablonec 31%, with the draw its most likely call at 39%. The actual FK Jablonec win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slovan Liberec 43%, FK Jablonec 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Slovan Liberec's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.

FK Jablonec's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, FK Jablonec arrived the stronger side — 1.91 PPG against 1.41. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Slovan Liberec (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.36 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.95 concession average — a leakier day than usual. FK Jablonec (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.14 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights