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Slovan Liberec cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over České Budějovice.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Slovan Liberec beat České Budějovice 2-0 at Stadion u Nisy, Regular Season - 28, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Slovan Liberec 2.11 xG and České Budějovice 0.74 xG, a combined 2.85. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slovan Liberec attack 1.04 / defence 0.85 against České Budějovice attack 0.76 / defence 1.44, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Slovan Liberec 68% | Draw 21% | České Budějovice 11%, with Slovan Liberec to win its most likely call at 68%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slovan Liberec 49%, České Budějovice 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Slovan Liberec's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.

České Budějovice's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 48% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Slovan Liberec arrived the stronger side — 1.29 PPG against 0.58. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Slovan Liberec (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.14 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights