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Slovan Liberec cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Dukla Praha.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Slovan Liberec beat Dukla Praha 2-0 at Stadion U Nisy, Regular Season - 4, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Slovan Liberec 1.36 xG and Dukla Praha 0.88 xG, a combined 2.24. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Dukla Praha landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slovan Liberec attack 1.08 / defence 0.95 against Dukla Praha attack 0.71 / defence 0.95, drawn from 33/33 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Slovan Liberec 47% | Draw 29% | Dukla Praha 23%, with Slovan Liberec to win its most likely call at 47%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slovan Liberec 51%, Dukla Praha 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Slovan Liberec's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.

Dukla Praha's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Slovan Liberec 1.40 PPG, Dukla Praha 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Slovan Liberec win broke the near-deadlock. Slovan Liberec (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Dukla Praha (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.88 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights