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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Slovan Liberec and Dukla Praha share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Slovan Liberec and Dukla Praha finished level at 1-1 at Stadion u Nisy, Regular Season - 24, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Slovan Liberec 1.90 xG and Dukla Praha 0.60 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Slovan Liberec fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slovan Liberec attack 1.11 / defence 0.88 against Dukla Praha attack 0.56 / defence 1.13, drawn from 53/22 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Slovan Liberec 68% | Draw 21% | Dukla Praha 11%, with Slovan Liberec to win its most likely call at 68%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slovan Liberec 50%, Dukla Praha 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Slovan Liberec's trading profile (22 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.

Dukla Praha's trading profile (22 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Slovan Liberec arrived the stronger side — 1.14 PPG against 0.64. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Dukla Praha (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.82 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights