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Prediction vindicated as Slovan Liberec edge out Bohemians 1905 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Slovan Liberec beat Bohemians 1905 1-0 at Stadion u Nisy, Middle Play-offs - Semi-finals, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Slovan Liberec 1.38 xG and Bohemians 1905 0.98 xG, a combined 2.36. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Bohemians 1905 landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slovan Liberec attack 1.05 / defence 0.96 against Bohemians 1905 attack 0.85 / defence 0.97, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Slovan Liberec 46% | Draw 28% | Bohemians 1905 27%, with Slovan Liberec to win its most likely call at 46%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slovan Liberec 49%, Bohemians 1905 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Slovan Liberec's trading profile (63 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.

Bohemians 1905's trading profile (63 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Slovan Liberec 1.30 PPG, Bohemians 1905 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Slovan Liberec win broke the near-deadlock. Slovan Liberec (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line. Bohemians 1905 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.03 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights