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Shock result as Baník Ostrava defy the odds to beat Slovan Liberec 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Baník Ostrava beat Slovan Liberec 0-1 at Stadion u Nisy, Regular Season - 20, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Slovan Liberec 1.58 xG and Baník Ostrava 1.28 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Slovan Liberec fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slovan Liberec attack 1.11 / defence 0.93 against Baník Ostrava attack 1.13 / defence 0.93, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Slovan Liberec 43% | Draw 27% | Baník Ostrava 30%, with Slovan Liberec to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Baník Ostrava win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slovan Liberec 51%, Baník Ostrava 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Slovan Liberec's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Baník Ostrava's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Slovan Liberec 1.25 PPG, Baník Ostrava 1.65 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Baník Ostrava win broke the near-deadlock. Slovan Liberec (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward. Baník Ostrava (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.48 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights