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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Slovácko cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Zlin.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Slovácko beat Zlin 2-0 at Mestsky stadion Miroslava Valenty, Regular Season - 16, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Slovácko 0.71 xG and Zlin 1.30 xG, a combined 2.01. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Slovácko beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Zlin landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slovácko attack 0.67 / defence 1.04 against Zlin attack 0.95 / defence 0.81, drawn from 45/15 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Slovácko 18% | Draw 33% | Zlin 49%, with Zlin to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a Slovácko win, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 33% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slovácko 27%, Zlin 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Slovácko's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not.

Zlin's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Zlin arrived the stronger side — 1.53 PPG against 0.53. Form was overturned, with Slovácko winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Slovácko (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.43 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.43 average — tighter than their form line. Zlin (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.86 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights