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Prediction vindicated as Slovácko edge out Teplice 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Slovácko beat Teplice 2-1 at Mestsky stadion Miroslava Valenty, Regular Season - 5, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Slovácko 1.15 xG and Teplice 1.07 xG, a combined 2.21. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Slovácko beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slovácko attack 0.74 / defence 1.07 against Teplice attack 0.81 / defence 1.16, drawn from 34/33 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Slovácko 37% | Draw 30% | Teplice 33%, with Slovácko to win its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slovácko 42%, Teplice 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Slovácko's trading profile (38 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.

Teplice's trading profile (38 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Slovácko 1.03 PPG, Teplice 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Slovácko win broke the near-deadlock. Slovácko (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.83 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights