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Sparta Praha cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Slovácko.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sparta Praha beat Slovácko 0-2 at Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty, Regular Season - 20, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Slovácko 1.05 xG and Sparta Praha 1.13 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Slovácko fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Sparta Praha outscored their 1.13 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slovácko attack 0.80 / defence 0.86 against Sparta Praha attack 1.11 / defence 0.87, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Slovácko 32% | Draw 32% | Sparta Praha 36%, with Sparta Praha to win its most likely call at 36%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slovácko 46%, Sparta Praha 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Slovácko's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Sparta Praha's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Sparta Praha arrived the stronger side — 2.30 PPG against 1.28. Form held, and they took the win. Slovácko (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.23 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sparta Praha (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights