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Dominant Slovan Liberec run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Slovácko.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Slovan Liberec beat Slovácko 0-3 at Mestsky stadion Miroslava Valenty, Regular Season - 14, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Slovácko 0.96 xG and Slovan Liberec 1.35 xG, a combined 2.31. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Slovácko fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Slovan Liberec outscored their 1.35 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slovácko attack 0.76 / defence 0.99 against Slovan Liberec attack 1.18 / defence 1.08, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Slovácko 23% | Draw 35% | Slovan Liberec 42%, with Slovan Liberec to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slovácko 38%, Slovan Liberec 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Slovácko's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 47% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Slovan Liberec's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Slovácko 0.98 PPG, Slovan Liberec 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Slovan Liberec win broke the near-deadlock. Slovácko (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.82 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.27 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Slovan Liberec (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.27 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights