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Dominant Slovan Liberec run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Slovácko.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Slovan Liberec beat Slovácko 0-4 at Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty, Regular Season - 27, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Slovácko 0.85 xG and Slovan Liberec 0.94 xG, a combined 1.79. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Slovácko fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Slovan Liberec outscored their 0.94 projection by 3.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slovácko attack 0.74 / defence 0.93 against Slovan Liberec attack 0.91 / defence 0.82, drawn from 55/56 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Slovácko 29% | Draw 37% | Slovan Liberec 34%, with the draw its most likely call at 37%. The actual Slovan Liberec win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 55% and landed. Over 3.5 was 11% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slovácko 45%, Slovan Liberec 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Slovácko's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Slovan Liberec's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Slovácko 1.19 PPG, Slovan Liberec 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Slovan Liberec win broke the near-deadlock. Slovácko (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.07 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Slovan Liberec (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.07 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.54 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights