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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Slavia Praha edge out Slovácko 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Slavia Praha beat Slovácko 0-1 at Mestsky stadion Miroslava Valenty, Regular Season - 3, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Slovácko 0.81 xG and Slavia Praha 1.66 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Slovácko fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slovácko attack 0.80 / defence 1.10 against Slavia Praha attack 1.17 / defence 0.75, drawn from 32/32 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Slovácko 18% | Draw 25% | Slavia Praha 57%, with Slavia Praha to win its most likely call at 57%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slovácko 43%, Slavia Praha 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 36%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Slovácko's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 46% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Slavia Praha's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 32% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 62% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Slavia Praha arrived the stronger side — 2.54 PPG against 1.05. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Slovácko (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.83 scoring average — below par going forward. Slavia Praha (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.94 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights