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Prediction vindicated as Sigma Olomouc edge out Slovácko 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sigma Olomouc beat Slovácko 0-1 at Mestsky stadion Miroslava Valenty, Regular Season - 1, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Slovácko 1.18 xG and Sigma Olomouc 1.53 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Slovácko fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slovácko attack 0.92 / defence 1.17 against Sigma Olomouc attack 1.00 / defence 0.95, drawn from 30/30 games (PrevSeason).

On the result, the model split it Slovácko 29% | Draw 25% | Sigma Olomouc 45%, with Sigma Olomouc to win its most likely call at 45%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slovácko 46%, Sigma Olomouc 69%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Slovácko's trading profile (35 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 46% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Sigma Olomouc's trading profile (35 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Slovácko 1.09 PPG, Sigma Olomouc 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sigma Olomouc win broke the near-deadlock. Slovácko (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.83 scoring average — below par going forward. Sigma Olomouc (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.28 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights