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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Slovácko and Sigma Olomouc share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty, Regular Season - 29, as Slovácko and Sigma Olomouc drew 2-2 in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Slovácko 0.77 xG and Sigma Olomouc 1.78 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Slovácko beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slovácko attack 0.71 / defence 1.46 against Sigma Olomouc attack 1.01 / defence 0.80, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Slovácko 15% | Draw 24% | Sigma Olomouc 61%, with Sigma Olomouc to win its most likely call at 61%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slovácko 47%, Sigma Olomouc 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Slovácko's trading profile (60 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.

Sigma Olomouc's trading profile (60 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Slovácko 1.15 PPG, Sigma Olomouc 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Slovácko (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.07 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights