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Dominant Slovácko run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Plzen.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Slovácko beat Plzen 3-0 at Mestsky stadion Miroslava Valenty, Regular Season - 18, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Slovácko 1.09 xG and Plzen 1.60 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Slovácko beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Plzen landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slovácko attack 0.79 / defence 0.95 against Plzen attack 1.29 / defence 1.02, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Slovácko 25% | Draw 27% | Plzen 48%, with Plzen to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a Slovácko win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slovácko 40%, Plzen 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Slovácko's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did not.

Plzen's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Plzen arrived the stronger side — 1.98 PPG against 0.94. Form was overturned, with Slovácko winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Slovácko (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.80 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.24 average — tighter than their form line. Plzen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.88 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights