Slovácko vs Pardubice – Predictions
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🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Slovácko's attack at 0.76x the league average against Pardubice's defence at 1.01x — combine the two and it projects 1.15 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Pardubice's attack versus Slovácko's defence, projects 0.69 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 17.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (16.7%), 1-1 (14.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Slovácko Win
45%
2.24
35%
2.83
20%
5.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
18.3%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.9%
Draw
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Slovácko xG
Total xG
1.84
0.69
Pardubice xG
2.24
45%
Home win
2.83
35%
Draw
5.00
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
55%
Over 1.5
1.82
45%
Under 1.5
2.22
28%
Over 2.5
3.57
72%
Under 2.5
1.39
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.78
64%
BTTS No
1.56
Clean Sheet
50%
1.99
32%
3.15
Win to Nil
22%
4.45
6%
15.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.9 | 11.0 | 3.8 | 0.9 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 18.3 | 12.6 | 4.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.5 | 7.2 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.0 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Slovácko vs Pardubice?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.6%.
How many goals are Slovácko and Pardubice expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Slovácko and 0.69 for Pardubice, a combined total of 1.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Slovácko vs Pardubice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.