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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Slovácko and Mlada Boleslav share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Mestsky stadion Miroslava Valenty, Regular Season - 25, as Slovácko and Mlada Boleslav drew 2-2 in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Slovácko 1.51 xG and Mlada Boleslav 0.93 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Mlada Boleslav outscored their 0.93 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slovácko attack 1.03 / defence 1.01 against Mlada Boleslav attack 0.85 / defence 1.11, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Slovácko 50% | Draw 27% | Mlada Boleslav 23%, with Slovácko to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slovácko 41%, Mlada Boleslav 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Slovácko's trading profile (59 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did.

Mlada Boleslav's trading profile (59 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Slovácko 1.02 PPG, Mlada Boleslav 1.08 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Slovácko (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights