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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Karviná edge out Slovácko 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Karviná beat Slovácko 1-2 at Mestsky stadion Miroslava Valenty, Regular Season - 10, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Slovácko 1.23 xG and Karviná 1.56 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slovácko attack 0.79 / defence 1.12 against Karviná attack 1.15 / defence 1.16, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Slovácko 28% | Draw 29% | Karviná 43%, with Karviná to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slovácko 39%, Karviná 66%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Slovácko's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.

Karviná's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Slovácko 1.02 PPG, Karviná 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Karviná win broke the near-deadlock. Karviná (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.10 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights