Slovácko 1-0 Hradec Králové – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Slovácko at 38% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Slovácko vs Hradec Králové encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty plays host to Slovácko versus Hradec Králové in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off: Sunday 15 August 2021 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Slovácko have collected 2.00 PPG across 3 Czech Liga outings this season: 2W 0D 1L. Last five: W W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.67 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 3 games (67%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Slovácko have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Hradec Králové's overall Czech Liga record this term: 0W 3D 0L from 3 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Hradec Králové have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Form favours the hosts. Slovácko's 2.00 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of Hradec Králové's 1.00 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Trading
Slovácko half-time and goal-timing data (3 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; they lead at the break 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time.
Hradec Králové half-time and goal-timing data (3 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Slovácko 33% and Hradec Králové 100% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Slovácko 33% | Hradec Králové 0%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Slovácko 1.17 xG and Hradec Králové 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Slovácko attack 0.877 / defence 0.940 | Hradec Králové attack 0.770 / defence 1.106. League average goals — home 1.209 / away 1.466. Data: 3 Slovácko games / 3 Hradec Králové games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Slovácko 38% | Draw 29% | Hradec Králové 33%. Fair-value odds: Slovácko 2.63 | Draw 3.45 | Hradec Králové 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.23. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.23 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Slovácko as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Slovácko if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.23 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 39% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. This conflicts with form data: Slovácko 33% | Hradec Králové 100% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (3 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Slovácko vs Hradec Králové | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty • Kick-off: Sunday 15 Aug 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Slovácko 38% | Draw 29% | Hradec Králové 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 45% | xG Slovácko 1.17 / Hradec Králové 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Slovácko attack 0.877 / def 0.940 | Hradec Králové attack 0.770 / def 1.106 | league avg home 1.209 / away 1.466 • Poisson stance: Slovácko (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Slovácko xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Hradec Králové xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Slovácko vs Hradec Králové kick off?
Slovácko vs Hradec Králové kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 15 August 2021 at Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty.
What was the final score in Slovácko vs Hradec Králové?
Slovácko 1 - 0 Hradec Králové.
Where is Slovácko vs Hradec Králové being played?
The match is being played at Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty.
What competition is Slovácko vs Hradec Králové part of?
Slovácko vs Hradec Králové is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Slovácko vs Hradec Králové?
Our statistical model gives Slovácko a 38% chance of winning, Hradec Králové a 33% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Slovácko the favourite.
Will both teams score in Slovácko vs Hradec Králové?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Slovácko and Hradec Králové will score (BTTS).
Will Slovácko vs Hradec Králové have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Slovácko and Hradec Králové?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Slovácko and Hradec Králové in?
Slovácko (all comps): 2W-0D-1L in 3 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.67 | L5 W-W-L. Hradec Králové (all comps): 0W-3D-0L in 3 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Slovácko's attack rating (0.88) and Hradec Králové's defence rating (1.11), the model arrives at 1.17 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Hradec Králové's attack (0.77x) against Slovácko's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 1.06.
The sample (3/3 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.4%), 1-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Slovácko Win
38%
2.61
29%
3.46
33%
3.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
0 – 1
11.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Slovácko xG
Total xG
2.23
1.06
Hradec Králové xG
2.61
38%
Home win
3.46
29%
Draw
3.06
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.21
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
35%
2.89
31%
3.23
Win to Nil
13%
7.54
10%
9.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.7 | 11.4 | 6.0 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.6 | 13.3 | 7.1 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 7.8 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Slovácko vs Hradec Králové?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Slovácko and Hradec Králové expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Slovácko and 1.06 for Hradec Králové, a combined total of 2.23.
How confident is the prediction model for Slovácko vs Hradec Králové?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Slovácko's recent record stands at 2W 0D 1L from 3 games, a 2.00 PPG return, with W-W-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Slovácko, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Hradec Králové, meanwhile, have gone 0W 3D 0L across 3 games — 1.00 PPG, with D-D-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Hradec Králové, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Slovácko by 1.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Hradec Králové heading into this one.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Slovácko are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game recently; Hradec Králové are on 1.00 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Hradec Králové in 100%.
Defensively: Slovácko have kept a clean sheet in 67% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 3 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Slovácko
Early Season
Hradec Králové
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Slovácko and Hradec Králové in coming into this match?
Slovácko have gone 2W 0D 1L in their last 3 games (2.00 PPG), while Hradec Králové have gone 0W 3D 0L in their last 3 (1.00 PPG).
Have Slovácko or Hradec Králové been keeping clean sheets recently?
Slovácko have kept a clean sheet in 67% of their recent games, Hradec Králové in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 11 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Hradec Králové go into this on the back of 5 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Hradec Králové won 1-5 on 9 Apr 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Slovácko have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Hradec Králové — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Slovácko
2
Draws
5
Hradec Králové
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Slovácko and Hradec Králové?
From 10 meetings on record, Slovácko have won 3, Hradec Králové have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Slovácko and Hradec Králové last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2026, when Slovácko 1-3 Hradec Králové.
Who has won more matches between Slovácko and Hradec Králové?
Hradec Králové have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Slovácko are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Hradec Králové are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 33% for Slovácko, 100% for Hradec Králové — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Slovácko and 0% for Hradec Králové.
On the defensive side: Slovácko keep a clean sheet in 67% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Slovácko home games / Hradec Králové away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Slovácko play Hradec Králové?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 33% of Slovácko's games and 100% of Hradec Králové's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Slovácko vs Hradec Králové usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Slovácko's recent games and 0% of Hradec Králové's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Slovácko and Hradec Králové tend to score early?
Slovácko have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Hradec Králové in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Slovácko edge out Hradec Králové 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Slovácko beat Hradec Králové 1-0 at Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty, Regular Season - 4, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Slovácko 1.17 xG and Hradec Králové 1.06 xG, a combined 2.23. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Hradec Králové landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slovácko attack 0.88 / defence 0.94 against Hradec Králové attack 0.77 / defence 1.11, drawn from 3/3 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Slovácko 38% | Draw 29% | Hradec Králové 33%, with Slovácko to win its most likely call at 38%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 17% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slovácko 33%, Hradec Králové 0%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Slovácko's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time, and duly kept one.
Hradec Králové's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 100% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Slovácko arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.00. That form edge translated into the three points. Hradec Králové managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.