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Dominant Hradec Králové run riot with a 1-5 hammering of Slovácko.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Hradec Králové beat Slovácko 1-5 at Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty, Regular Season - 23, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Slovácko 0.95 xG and Hradec Králové 1.33 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 1-5 for 6 actual goals. Hradec Králové outscored their 1.33 projection by 3.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slovácko attack 0.70 / defence 1.19 against Hradec Králové attack 0.98 / defence 0.99, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Slovácko 26% | Draw 30% | Hradec Králové 44%, with Hradec Králové to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slovácko 45%, Hradec Králové 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Slovácko's trading profile (62 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.

Hradec Králové's trading profile (62 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Slovácko 1.18 PPG, Hradec Králové 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hradec Králové win broke the near-deadlock. Slovácko (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Hradec Králové (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 0.83 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights