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FK Jablonec cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Slovácko.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FK Jablonec beat Slovácko 0-2 at Mestsky stadion Miroslava Valenty, Regular Season - 7, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Slovácko 0.80 xG and FK Jablonec 1.22 xG, a combined 2.02. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slovácko attack 0.83 / defence 1.08 against FK Jablonec attack 0.93 / defence 0.71, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Slovácko 24% | Draw 30% | FK Jablonec 46%, with FK Jablonec to win its most likely call at 46%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slovácko 42%, FK Jablonec 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Slovácko's trading profile (41 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 46% of games, a blank that repeated today.

FK Jablonec's trading profile (41 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, FK Jablonec arrived the stronger side — 1.83 PPG against 1.05. That form edge translated into the three points. Slovácko (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.81 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual. FK Jablonec (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.10 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights