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Stalemate at Slovácko's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Slovácko and České Budějovice finished level at 0-0 at Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty, Relegation Round - 2, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Slovácko 1.61 xG and České Budějovice 1.09 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Slovácko fell 1.6 short of their projected output. České Budějovice landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slovácko attack 0.81 / defence 1.44 against České Budějovice attack 0.63 / defence 1.46, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Slovácko 49% | Draw 25% | České Budějovice 26%, with Slovácko to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slovácko 46%, České Budějovice 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Slovácko's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.

České Budějovice's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 46% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Slovácko arrived the stronger side — 1.17 PPG against 0.58. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Slovácko (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.15 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.30 average — tighter than their form line. České Budějovice (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.61 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights