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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Slovácko edge out České Budějovice 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Slovácko beat České Budějovice 2-1 at Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty, Regular Season - 25, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Slovácko 1.45 xG and České Budějovice 0.84 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slovácko attack 0.65 / defence 0.87 against České Budějovice attack 0.80 / defence 1.50, drawn from 53/54 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Slovácko 50% | Draw 29% | České Budějovice 21%, with Slovácko to win its most likely call at 50%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slovácko 45%, České Budějovice 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Slovácko's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

České Budějovice's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Slovácko arrived the stronger side — 1.21 PPG against 0.64. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Slovácko (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights