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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Dukla Praha defy the odds to beat Slovácko 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Dukla Praha beat Slovácko 1-2 at Mestsky stadion Miroslava Valenty, Regular Season - 27, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Slovácko 1.41 xG and Dukla Praha 0.99 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Dukla Praha outscored their 0.99 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slovácko attack 1.01 / defence 1.20 against Dukla Praha attack 0.70 / defence 0.99, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Slovácko 45% | Draw 31% | Dukla Praha 25%, with Slovácko to win its most likely call at 45%. Instead the game produced a Dukla Praha win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slovácko 45%, Dukla Praha 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Slovácko's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did.

Dukla Praha's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Slovácko 0.95 PPG, Dukla Praha 0.83 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Dukla Praha win broke the near-deadlock. Dukla Praha (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.69 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights