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Shock result as Slovácko defy the odds to beat Dukla Praha 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Slovácko beat Dukla Praha 3-2 at Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty, Relegation Round - 4, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Slovácko 1.24 xG and Dukla Praha 1.30 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Slovácko beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slovácko attack 0.82 / defence 1.41 against Dukla Praha attack 0.77 / defence 1.11, drawn from 60/30 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Slovácko 35% | Draw 27% | Dukla Praha 38%, with Dukla Praha to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Slovácko win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slovácko 42%, Dukla Praha 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Slovácko's trading profile (33 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Dukla Praha's trading profile (33 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Slovácko 1.03 PPG, Dukla Praha 0.94 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Slovácko win broke the near-deadlock. Slovácko (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.71 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Dukla Praha (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.82 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.71 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights