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Stalemate at Slovácko's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Slovácko and Dukla Praha finished level at 0-0 at Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty, Regular Season - 22, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Slovácko 1.35 xG and Dukla Praha 0.68 xG, a combined 2.03. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Slovácko fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slovácko attack 0.71 / defence 0.96 against Dukla Praha attack 0.62 / defence 1.24, drawn from 51/20 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Slovácko 53% | Draw 28% | Dukla Praha 19%, with Slovácko to win its most likely call at 53%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 60% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slovácko 50%, Dukla Praha 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Slovácko's trading profile (20 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Dukla Praha's trading profile (20 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Slovácko arrived the stronger side — 1.20 PPG against 0.65. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Dukla Praha (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights