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Prediction vindicated as Slovácko edge out Baník Ostrava 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Slovácko beat Baník Ostrava 2-1 at Mestsky stadion Miroslava Valenty, Relegation Group - 3, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Slovácko 1.74 xG and Baník Ostrava 1.25 xG, a combined 2.99. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slovácko attack 1.00 / defence 1.24 against Baník Ostrava attack 0.84 / defence 1.26, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Slovácko 48% | Draw 25% | Baník Ostrava 27%, with Slovácko to win its most likely call at 48%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slovácko 45%, Baník Ostrava 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Slovácko's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.

Baník Ostrava's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Baník Ostrava arrived the stronger side — 1.40 PPG against 0.97. Form was overturned, with Slovácko winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Slovácko (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.97 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights