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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Slovácko and Baník Ostrava share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Mestsky stadion Miroslava Valenty, Regular Season - 20, as Slovácko and Baník Ostrava drew 2-2 in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Slovácko 1.08 xG and Baník Ostrava 0.75 xG, a combined 1.83. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Slovácko beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Baník Ostrava outscored their 0.75 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slovácko attack 0.93 / defence 0.89 against Baník Ostrava attack 0.67 / defence 0.83, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Slovácko 43% | Draw 32% | Baník Ostrava 25%, with Slovácko to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 55% and landed. Over 3.5 was 11% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slovácko 41%, Baník Ostrava 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Slovácko's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did.

Baník Ostrava's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Baník Ostrava arrived the stronger side — 1.57 PPG against 0.96. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Slovácko (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.85 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.15 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Baník Ostrava (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.04 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights