Slovácko 2-0 Baník Ostrava – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Slovácko at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Slovácko vs Baník Ostrava fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty plays host to Slovácko versus Baník Ostrava in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off: Sunday 26 November 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Slovácko have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: W L D D W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Slovácko, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty, Slovácko have gone 4W 5D 1L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty.
Baník Ostrava (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 Czech Liga outings this term — 2.00 points per game. Last five: D W L W L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.60. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Baník Ostrava, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Baník Ostrava's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in Czech Liga this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.70 for Slovácko, 2.00 for Baník Ostrava — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Slovácko 0W, Baník Ostrava 2W, 1D.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.7 per game from 3 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Jul 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Slovácko half-time and goal-timing data (50 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Baník Ostrava half-time and goal-timing data (50 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Slovácko 42% versus Baník Ostrava 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Slovácko 42% | Baník Ostrava 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Slovácko 1.11 xG and Baník Ostrava 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Slovácko attack 0.887 / defence 0.787 | Baník Ostrava attack 1.191 / defence 0.853. League average goals — home 1.469 / away 1.178. Slovácko's defence rating of 0.787 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 45 Slovácko games / 45 Baník Ostrava games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Slovácko 36% | Draw 29% | Baník Ostrava 35%. Fair-value odds: Slovácko 2.78 | Draw 3.45 | Baník Ostrava 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.22. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.22 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Slovácko at 36% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Slovácko if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.22 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 38% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 1.7 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. Form rates are neutral: Slovácko 40% | Baník Ostrava 70%.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Slovácko vs Baník Ostrava | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Nov 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Slovácko 36% | Draw 29% | Baník Ostrava 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 45% | xG Slovácko 1.11 / Baník Ostrava 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Slovácko attack 0.887 / def 0.787 | Baník Ostrava attack 1.191 / def 0.853 | league avg home 1.469 / away 1.178 • Poisson stance: Slovácko (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Slovácko xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Baník Ostrava xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Slovácko vs Baník Ostrava kick off?
Slovácko vs Baník Ostrava kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 26 November 2023 at Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty.
What was the final score in Slovácko vs Baník Ostrava?
Slovácko 2 - 0 Baník Ostrava.
Where is Slovácko vs Baník Ostrava being played?
The match is being played at Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty.
What competition is Slovácko vs Baník Ostrava part of?
Slovácko vs Baník Ostrava is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Slovácko vs Baník Ostrava?
Our statistical model gives Slovácko a 36% chance of winning, Baník Ostrava a 35% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Slovácko the favourite.
Will both teams score in Slovácko vs Baník Ostrava?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Slovácko and Baník Ostrava will score (BTTS).
Will Slovácko vs Baník Ostrava have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Slovácko and Baník Ostrava?
Record (3 meetings): Slovácko 0W | Draws 1 | Baník Ostrava 2W.
What form are Slovácko and Baník Ostrava in?
Slovácko (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-D-D-W. Baník Ostrava (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Slovácko's attack rating (0.89) and Baník Ostrava's defence rating (0.85), the model arrives at 1.11 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Baník Ostrava's attack (1.19x) against Slovácko's defence (0.79x) — and the away total comes out at 1.10.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.6%), 1-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Slovácko Win
36%
2.80
29%
3.45
35%
2.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
0 – 1
12.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
Slovácko xG
Total xG
2.22
1.10
Baník Ostrava xG
2.80
36%
Home win
3.45
29%
Draw
2.83
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.23
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
33%
3.02
33%
3.04
Win to Nil
12%
8.46
12%
8.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.9 | 12.0 | 6.7 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 13.4 | 7.4 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 7.4 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Slovácko vs Baník Ostrava?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Slovácko and Baník Ostrava expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Slovácko and 1.10 for Baník Ostrava, a combined total of 2.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Slovácko vs Baník Ostrava?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Slovácko's recent record stands at 20W 15D 15L from 50 games, a 1.50 PPG return, with W-L-D-D-W in the last five. The sample for Slovácko is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Baník Ostrava, meanwhile, have gone 18W 12D 20L across 50 games — 1.32 PPG, with D-W-L-W-L in their last five. The sample for Baník Ostrava is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.50 PPG for Slovácko against 1.32 for Baník Ostrava. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Slovácko have managed 11W 8D 5L from 24 games — 1.71 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Baník Ostrava's away record stands at 6W 9D 9L across 24 trips, a 1.12 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Slovácko come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Slovácko are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Baník Ostrava are on 1.50 scored and 1.26 conceded.
Defensively: Slovácko have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 50 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Slovácko
Blended
Baník Ostrava
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Slovácko and Baník Ostrava in coming into this match?
Slovácko have gone 20W 15D 15L in their last 50 games (1.50 PPG), while Baník Ostrava have gone 18W 12D 20L in their last 50 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Slovácko at home or Baník Ostrava away?
Slovácko's home record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Slovácko at home: 1.71 PPG; Baník Ostrava away: 1.12 PPG.
Have Slovácko or Baník Ostrava been keeping clean sheets recently?
Slovácko have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Baník Ostrava in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 12 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Baník Ostrava won 6-0 on 26 May 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Slovácko have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Baník Ostrava — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Slovácko
2
Draws
5
Baník Ostrava
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Slovácko and Baník Ostrava?
From 10 meetings on record, Slovácko have won 3, Baník Ostrava have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Slovácko and Baník Ostrava last play each other?
They last met on 12 May 2026, when Slovácko 2-1 Baník Ostrava.
Who has won more matches between Slovácko and Baník Ostrava?
Baník Ostrava have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Slovácko are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Baník Ostrava are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Slovácko 42%, Baník Ostrava 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Slovácko) and 50% (Baník Ostrava).
On the defensive side: Slovácko keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Slovácko home games / Baník Ostrava away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Slovácko play Baník Ostrava?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Slovácko's recent matches and 67% of Baník Ostrava's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Slovácko vs Baník Ostrava usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Slovácko's recent games and 50% of Baník Ostrava's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Slovácko and Baník Ostrava tend to score early?
Slovácko have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Baník Ostrava in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Slovácko cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Baník Ostrava.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Slovácko beat Baník Ostrava 2-0 at Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty, Regular Season - 16, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Slovácko 1.11 xG and Baník Ostrava 1.10 xG, a combined 2.22. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Slovácko beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Baník Ostrava landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slovácko attack 0.89 / defence 0.79 against Baník Ostrava attack 1.19 / defence 0.85, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Slovácko 36% | Draw 29% | Baník Ostrava 35%, with Slovácko to win its most likely call at 36%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slovácko 42%, Baník Ostrava 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Slovácko's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Baník Ostrava's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Slovácko 1.50 PPG, Baník Ostrava 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Slovácko win broke the near-deadlock. Slovácko (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.88 average — tighter than their form line. Baník Ostrava (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.38 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.