Slovácko 1-1 Artis – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Slovácko at 51% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Slovácko vs Artis encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Artis make the trip to Mestsky stadion Miroslava Valenty to face Slovácko in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 2. The match kicks off on Saturday 1 August 2026 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
Slovácko (all games): 4W 1D 5L across 10 Czech Liga fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L W W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Slovácko have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Slovácko's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 games at Mestsky stadion Miroslava Valenty this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Artis's overall Czech Liga record this term: 0W 0D 3L from 3 games (0.00 PPG). Last five: L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 3.67 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 3.67 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Artis have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The form ledger tips toward Slovácko. A 1.30 PPG lead over Artis (1.30 vs 0.00) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using overall form) — Slovácko have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Artis in 67%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Slovácko lead 2W to 0W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 31 May 2026, ended 3–0 with Slovácko winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Slovácko — key trading statistics (3 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games; Over 3.5 in 67%.
Artis — key trading statistics (3 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games; Over 3.5 in 67%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Slovácko 67% and Artis 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Slovácko 100% | Artis 100%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Slovácko 1.78 xG and Artis 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Slovácko attack 0.977 / defence 1.068 | Artis attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.588 / away 1.316. Data: 31 Slovácko games / 1 Artis games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Slovácko 51% | Draw 23% | Artis 26%. Fair-value odds: Slovácko 1.96 | Draw 4.35 | Artis 3.85. Slovácko hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.98. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.98 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Slovácko as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Slovácko if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.98 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Slovácko 60% | Artis 67% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Slovácko vs Artis | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Mestsky stadion Miroslava Valenty • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Aug 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Slovácko 51% | Draw 23% | Artis 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 58% | xG Slovácko 1.78 / Artis 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Slovácko attack 0.977 / def 1.068 | Artis attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.588 / away 1.316 • Poisson stance: Slovácko (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.78
Slovácko xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Artis xG
58%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Slovácko vs Artis kick off?
Slovácko vs Artis kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 1 August 2026 at Mestsky stadion Miroslava Valenty.
What was the final score in Slovácko vs Artis?
Slovácko 1 - 1 Artis.
Where is Slovácko vs Artis being played?
The match is being played at Mestsky stadion Miroslava Valenty.
What competition is Slovácko vs Artis part of?
Slovácko vs Artis is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Slovácko vs Artis?
Our statistical model gives Slovácko a 51% chance of winning, Artis a 26% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Slovácko the favourite.
Will both teams score in Slovácko vs Artis?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Slovácko and Artis will score (BTTS).
Will Slovácko vs Artis have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Slovácko and Artis?
Record (2 meetings): Slovácko 2W | Draws 0 | Artis 0W.
What form are Slovácko and Artis in?
Slovácko (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-W-W-L. Artis (all comps): 0W-0D-3L in 3 | 0.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 3.67 | L5 L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Slovácko's attack at 0.98x the league average against Artis's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.78 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Artis's attack (0.85x) against Slovácko's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 1.19.
The sample (31/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Slovácko Win
51%
1.95
23%
4.30
26%
3.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.78
Slovácko xG
Total xG
2.98
1.19
Artis xG
1.95
51%
Home win
4.30
23%
Draw
3.92
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.38
Clean Sheet
30%
3.30
17%
5.95
Win to Nil
16%
6.45
4%
23.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 6.1 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 10.8 | 6.5 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.7 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 5.8 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Slovácko vs Artis?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Slovácko and Artis expected to score?
The model projects 1.78 expected goals for Slovácko and 1.19 for Artis, a combined total of 2.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Slovácko vs Artis?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 3 outings, Slovácko have picked up 2.00 PPG on a 2W 0D 1L record — W-W-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Slovácko, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Artis's form line: 0W 0D 3L from 3 games, 0.00 PPG, last five L-L-L. It's still early in the season for Artis, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Slovácko are the form team by 2.00 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Artis.
Attack vs Defence
Slovácko are averaging 2.67 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Artis are on 1.00 scored and 3.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Slovácko have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; Artis in 67%.
Last 3 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Slovácko
Early Season
Artis
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Slovácko and Artis in coming into this match?
Slovácko have gone 2W 0D 1L in their last 3 games (2.00 PPG), while Artis have gone 0W 0D 3L in their last 3 (0.00 PPG).
Have Slovácko or Artis been keeping clean sheets recently?
Slovácko have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Artis in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 3 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2026 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 1 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Slovácko won 1-4 on 27 May 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Slovácko have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Artis — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 3 Meetings
2
Slovácko
1
Draws
0
Artis
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Slovácko and Artis?
From 3 meetings on record, Slovácko have won 2, Artis have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Slovácko and Artis last play each other?
They last met on 1 August 2026, when Slovácko 1-1 Artis.
Who has won more matches between Slovácko and Artis?
Slovácko have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Slovácko are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Artis are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 67% for Slovácko, 67% for Artis — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for Slovácko and 100% for Artis. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 67% and 67% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Slovácko keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Artis in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Slovácko home games / Artis away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Slovácko play Artis?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Slovácko's games and 67% of Artis's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Slovácko vs Artis usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Slovácko's matches and 100% of Artis's.
Do Slovácko and Artis tend to score early?
Slovácko have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Artis in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Slovácko and Artis share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Slovácko and Artis finished level at 1-1 at Mestsky stadion Miroslava Valenty, Regular Season - 2, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Slovácko 1.78 xG and Artis 1.19 xG, a combined 2.98. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slovácko attack 0.98 / defence 1.07 against Artis attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 31/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Slovácko 51% | Draw 23% | Artis 26%, with Slovácko to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 100% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slovácko 100%, Artis 100%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Slovácko's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Artis's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Slovácko arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 0.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Slovácko managed 1 against a 2.67 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. Artis conceded 1 against a 3.67 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.