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Stalemate at Slavia Praha's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Slavia Praha and Zlin finished level at 0-0 at Fortuna Arena, Regular Season - 12, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Slavia Praha 1.66 xG and Zlin 0.86 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Slavia Praha fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Zlin landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slavia Praha attack 1.37 / defence 0.80 against Zlin attack 0.89 / defence 0.96, drawn from 41/11 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Slavia Praha 54% | Draw 29% | Zlin 17%, with Slavia Praha to win its most likely call at 54%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slavia Praha 46%, Zlin 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Slavia Praha's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.

Zlin's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Slavia Praha arrived the stronger side — 2.27 PPG against 1.64. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Slavia Praha (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.60 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.80 average — tighter than their form line. Zlin (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights