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Dominant Slavia Praha run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Teplice.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Slavia Praha beat Teplice 3-0 at Fortuna Arena, Regular Season - 4, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Slavia Praha 1.56 xG and Teplice 1.13 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Slavia Praha beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Teplice landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slavia Praha attack 1.15 / defence 0.95 against Teplice attack 0.93 / defence 1.00, drawn from 33/32 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Slavia Praha 46% | Draw 28% | Teplice 26%, with Slavia Praha to win its most likely call at 46%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slavia Praha 54%, Teplice 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Slavia Praha's trading profile (37 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 32% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 62% of the time, and duly kept one.

Teplice's trading profile (37 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Slavia Praha arrived the stronger side — 2.59 PPG against 1.27. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Teplice (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.88 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.29 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights