Slavia Praha vs Sparta Praha – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Slavia Praha at 61% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Slavia Praha vs Sparta Praha encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Fortuna Arena plays host to Slavia Praha versus Sparta Praha in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off: Saturday 6 February 2027 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Slavia Praha have collected 2.30 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 7W 2D 1L. Last five: D D W W W. They are averaging 2.70 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Slavia Praha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Slavia Praha have posted 8W 2D 0L at Fortuna Arena — 2.60 PPG. They are averaging 2.70 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Sparta Praha (all games): 6W 0D 4L across 10 Czech Liga outings this term — 1.80 points per game. Last five: W W L L W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.30. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Sparta Praha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Czech Liga this season, Sparta Praha have posted 4W 1D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 2.30 for Slavia Praha, 1.80 for Sparta Praha — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 10 head-to-head meetings have produced 4 wins for Slavia Praha, 2 for Sparta Praha and 4 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Aug 2026, ended 3–0 with Slavia Praha winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Slavia Praha goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (42 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
Sparta Praha goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (42 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Slavia Praha 57% versus Sparta Praha 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Slavia Praha 62% | Sparta Praha 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Slavia Praha 2.27 xG and Sparta Praha 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Slavia Praha attack 1.486 / defence 0.908 | Sparta Praha attack 1.059 / defence 1.034. League average goals — home 1.480 / away 1.262. Slavia Praha carry an above-average attack strength of 1.486 — their λ of 2.27 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 38 Slavia Praha games / 38 Sparta Praha games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Slavia Praha 61% | Draw 21% | Sparta Praha 19%. Fair-value odds: Slavia Praha 1.64 | Draw 4.76 | Sparta Praha 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Slavia Praha (61%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.49. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.49 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (2.27 / 1.21) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Slavia Praha at 61% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.49 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 68% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 64% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Slavia Praha 60% | Sparta Praha 30%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Slavia Praha vs Sparta Praha | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Fortuna Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Feb 2027, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Slavia Praha 61% | Draw 21% | Sparta Praha 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 64% | xG Slavia Praha 2.27 / Sparta Praha 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Slavia Praha attack 1.486 / def 0.908 | Sparta Praha attack 1.059 / def 1.034 | league avg home 1.480 / away 1.262 • Poisson stance: Slavia Praha (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.27
Slavia Praha xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Sparta Praha xG
64%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Slavia Praha vs Sparta Praha kick off?
Slavia Praha vs Sparta Praha is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Saturday 6 February 2027 at Fortuna Arena.
Where is Slavia Praha vs Sparta Praha being played?
The match is being played at Fortuna Arena.
What competition is Slavia Praha vs Sparta Praha part of?
Slavia Praha vs Sparta Praha is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Slavia Praha vs Sparta Praha?
Our statistical model gives Slavia Praha a 61% chance of winning, Sparta Praha a 19% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Slavia Praha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Slavia Praha vs Sparta Praha?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Slavia Praha and Sparta Praha will score (BTTS).
Will Slavia Praha vs Sparta Praha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between Slavia Praha and Sparta Praha?
Record (10 meetings): Slavia Praha 4W | Draws 4 | Sparta Praha 2W.
What form are Slavia Praha and Sparta Praha in?
Slavia Praha (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.70 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-D-W-W-W. Sparta Praha (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Slavia Praha's attacking strength (1.49x league average) is weighed against Sparta Praha's defensive record (1.03x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.27. Flip it around — Sparta Praha's attack (1.06x) against Slavia Praha's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 1.21.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 9.6%. Close behind: 1-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Slavia Praha Win
61%
1.65
21%
4.81
19%
5.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.4%
Draw
2 – 0
7.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.27
Slavia Praha xG
Total xG
3.49
1.21
Sparta Praha xG
1.65
61%
Home win
4.81
21%
Draw
5.36
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.57
36%
BTTS No
2.76
Clean Sheet
30%
3.37
10%
9.72
Win to Nil
18%
5.56
2%
52.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.1 | 3.7 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 8.4 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 9.6 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 6.0 | 7.3 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.4 | 4.1 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Slavia Praha vs Sparta Praha?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.6%.
How many goals are Slavia Praha and Sparta Praha expected to score?
The model projects 2.27 expected goals for Slavia Praha and 1.21 for Sparta Praha, a combined total of 3.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Slavia Praha vs Sparta Praha?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 42 outings, Slavia Praha have picked up 2.38 PPG on a 30W 10D 2L record — D-D-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Slavia Praha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sparta Praha's form line: 26W 7D 9L from 42 games, 2.02 PPG, last five W-W-L-L-W. The sample for Sparta Praha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 2.38 PPG for Slavia Praha against 2.02 for Sparta Praha. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Slavia Praha have posted 2.70 PPG from 20 outings (17W 3D 0L).
On the road, Sparta Praha have gone 10W 3D 7L from 20 away games — 1.65 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Slavia Praha come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Slavia Praha are averaging 2.31 goals scored and 0.79 conceded per game recently; Sparta Praha are on 1.93 scored and 1.10 conceded. Sparta Praha's attacking output running into Slavia Praha's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
Defensively: Slavia Praha have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games; Sparta Praha in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 42 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Slavia Praha
Blended
Sparta Praha
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Slavia Praha and Sparta Praha in coming into this match?
Slavia Praha have gone 30W 10D 2L in their last 42 games (2.38 PPG), while Sparta Praha have gone 26W 7D 9L in their last 42 (2.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Slavia Praha at home or Sparta Praha away?
Slavia Praha's home record (2.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Slavia Praha at home: 2.70 PPG; Sparta Praha away: 1.65 PPG.
Have Slavia Praha or Sparta Praha been keeping clean sheets recently?
Slavia Praha have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Sparta Praha in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 30 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Slavia Praha go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Slavia Praha won 0-3 on 30 Aug 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Slavia Praha have gone 3W 1D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Sparta Praha — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Slavia Praha
4
Draws
2
Sparta Praha
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Slavia Praha and Sparta Praha?
From 10 meetings on record, Slavia Praha have won 4, Sparta Praha have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Slavia Praha and Sparta Praha last play each other?
They last met on 30 August 2026, when Sparta Praha 0-3 Slavia Praha.
Who has won more matches between Slavia Praha and Sparta Praha?
Slavia Praha have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Slavia Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time.
Sparta Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Slavia Praha 50%, Sparta Praha 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Slavia Praha and 55% for Sparta Praha. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Slavia Praha keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Sparta Praha in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Slavia Praha home games / Sparta Praha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Slavia Praha play Sparta Praha?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Slavia Praha's recent matches and 40% of Sparta Praha's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Slavia Praha vs Sparta Praha usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Slavia Praha's matches and 55% of Sparta Praha's.
Do Slavia Praha and Sparta Praha tend to score early?
Slavia Praha have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Sparta Praha in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.