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Slavia Praha cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Sparta Praha.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Slavia Praha beat Sparta Praha 3-1 at Fortuna Arena, Regular Season - 25, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Slavia Praha 1.18 xG and Sparta Praha 1.06 xG, a combined 2.24. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Slavia Praha beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slavia Praha attack 1.45 / defence 0.77 against Sparta Praha attack 1.22 / defence 0.61, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Slavia Praha 37% | Draw 32% | Sparta Praha 31%, with Slavia Praha to win its most likely call at 37%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slavia Praha 52%, Sparta Praha 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Slavia Praha's trading profile (59 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 56% of the time, and conceded here.

Sparta Praha's trading profile (59 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Slavia Praha arrived the stronger side — 2.51 PPG against 1.93. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Sparta Praha (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.97 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights