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Prediction vindicated as Slavia Praha edge out Sparta Praha 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Slavia Praha beat Sparta Praha 2-1 at Fortuna Arena, Championship Round - 3, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Slavia Praha 1.53 xG and Sparta Praha 0.82 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slavia Praha attack 1.29 / defence 0.59 against Sparta Praha attack 1.15 / defence 0.87, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Slavia Praha 54% | Draw 26% | Sparta Praha 20%, with Slavia Praha to win its most likely call at 54%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slavia Praha 55%, Sparta Praha 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Slavia Praha's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 57% of the time, and conceded here.

Sparta Praha's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Slavia Praha 2.52 PPG, Sparta Praha 2.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Slavia Praha win broke the near-deadlock. Sparta Praha (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.03 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights