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Prediction vindicated as Slavia Praha edge out Sigma Olomouc 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Slavia Praha beat Sigma Olomouc 2-1 at Fortuna Arena, Regular Season - 27, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Slavia Praha 2.05 xG and Sigma Olomouc 0.88 xG, a combined 2.93. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slavia Praha attack 1.28 / defence 0.71 against Sigma Olomouc attack 1.05 / defence 1.14, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Slavia Praha 63% | Draw 23% | Sigma Olomouc 14%, with Slavia Praha to win its most likely call at 63%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slavia Praha 53%, Sigma Olomouc 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Slavia Praha's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 55% of the time, and conceded here.

Sigma Olomouc's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Slavia Praha arrived the stronger side — 2.47 PPG against 1.38. Form held, and they took the win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights